The US jobs report came and went with some initial volatility, but the price action has settled down.

The February 2025 U.S. jobs report showed a mixed labor market performance. Non-farm payrolls increased by 151K, slightly below the expected 160K, with a two-month net revision of -2K, down from the prior +100K. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% versus the expected 4.0%, with the unrounded rate at 4.1396%, reflecting a slight rise from the previous 4.0113%. The participation rate declined to 62.4% from 62.6%, while the U6 underemployment rate rose to 8.0% from 7.5%. Average hourly earnings grew 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations but lower than the previous 0.5%, while year-over-year earnings increased by 4.0%, slightly below the anticipated 4.1%. Average weekly hours remained at 34.1, below the expected 34.2.

Where do we stand for some of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective?

  • EURUSD:The EURUSD moved up to a high of 1.08832 initially, and then rotated to the downside reaching loan .0844. The current prices trading at 1.0853. On the hourly chart there is some resistance near 1.08729. That level was broken on the spike higher but quickly reversed and now represents a potential resistance target once again. The high price from the European session today reached up to 1.08705 just short of that level (and respecting that level). If sellers are to make a play in the short term with work to do, they need to stay below that level. The High price from yesterday came in at 1.0853. That needs to be broken and stay broken below that the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the September 2024 comes in at 1.08174. Ultimately that level would need to be broken to give the sellers more control and confidence in the buyers some cause for pause.
  • USDJPY: The USDJPY is trading below a swing area between 147.21 and 147.34. Staying below that level is needed to keep the sellers fully in control. On the downside the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the September low comes in at 146.943. Getting below that and staying below that level increases sellers control and keeps the buyers on edge from a technical perspective.
  • GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is trading above and below its 61.8% of the move down from the September 2024 high at 1.29236. The price moved above that level in the European session and failed. The price moved above it on the jobs report and moved back below it again. That level remains a short term barometer for buyers and sellers. Staying below is not a endorsement of sellers winning – there is work to do – but it gives a small victory and could lead to some corrective action. A swing area at 1.28306 and 1.28423is a downside target followed by the rising 100 hour MA at 1.28156.
  • USDCHF: The USDCHF spiked higher off the release volatility and in doing so, tested the 200 day MA at 0.88186. That key moving average was broken earlier today for the first time since December 10 and is a negative from a technical perspective. Staying below the level is needed to keep the sellers in control. Move above, and the sellers are likely to be disappointed on the failed break. On the downside the 50% of the move up from the September 2024 low cuts across at 0.87868. That level will be another barometer for buyers and sellers. Move and stay below that level adds to a negative technical bias in the USDCHF.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.The US jobs report came and went with some initial volatility, but the price action has settled down. The February 2025 U.S. jobs report showed a mixed labor market performance. Non-farm payrolls increased by 151K, slightly below the expected 160K, with a two-month net revision of -2K, down from the prior +100K. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% versus the expected 4.0%, with the unrounded rate at 4.1396%, reflecting a slight rise from the previous 4.0113%. The participation rate declined to 62.4% from 62.6%, while the U6 underemployment rate rose to 8.0% from 7.5%. Average hourly earnings grew 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations but lower than the previous 0.5%, while year-over-year earnings increased by 4.0%, slightly below the anticipated 4.1%. Average weekly hours remained at 34.1, below the expected 34.2.Where do we stand for some of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective?EURUSD:The EURUSD moved up to a high of 1.08832 initially, and then rotated to the downside reaching loan .0844. The current prices trading at 1.0853. On the hourly chart there is some resistance near 1.08729. That level was broken on the spike higher but quickly reversed and now represents a potential resistance target once again. The high price from the European session today reached up to 1.08705 just short of that level (and respecting that level). If sellers are to make a play in the short term with work to do, they need to stay below that level. The High price from yesterday came in at 1.0853. That needs to be broken and stay broken below that the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the September 2024 comes in at 1.08174. Ultimately that level would need to be broken to give the sellers more control and confidence in the buyers some cause for pause. USDJPY: The USDJPY is trading below a swing area between 147.21 and 147.34. Staying below that level is needed to keep the sellers fully in control. On the downside the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the September low comes in at 146.943. Getting below that and staying below that level increases sellers control and keeps the buyers on edge from a technical perspective.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is trading above and below its 61.8% of the move down from the September 2024 high at 1.29236. The price moved above that level in the European session and failed. The price moved above it on the jobs report and moved back below it again. That level remains a short term barometer for buyers and sellers. Staying below is not a endorsement of sellers winning – there is work to do – but it gives a small victory and could lead to some corrective action. A swing area at 1.28306 and 1.28423is a downside target followed by the rising 100 hour MA at 1.28156.USDCHF: The USDCHF spiked higher off the release volatility and in doing so, tested the 200 day MA at 0.88186. That key moving average was broken earlier today for the first time since December 10 and is a negative from a technical perspective. Staying below the level is needed to keep the sellers in control. Move above, and the sellers are likely to be disappointed on the failed break. On the downside the 50% of the move up from the September 2024 low cuts across at 0.87868. That level will be another barometer for buyers and sellers. Move and stay below that level adds to a negative technical bias in the USDCHF.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.  Read MoreTechnical Analysis 

​Forexlive RSS Breaking News Feed