Stock Recommendations Today: ICICI Bank, NTPC, DLF, Gas Companies On Brokerages’ Radar NDTV Profit Desk NDTV Profit

NTPC Ltd., ICICI Bank Ltd., DLF Ltd., and gas stocks are among the top companies on brokerages’ radar on Monday.

In addition, JPMorgan analysed the impact of US tariffs on Indian auto, metal and pharma companies. The brokerage sees an indirect impact on demand for autos, negligible impact on earnings for metals uncertainty for pharma.

NDTV Profit tracks what analysts are saying about various stocks and sectors. Here are the analyst calls to keep an eye out for on Monday.

Macquarie On NTPC

• Maintained ‘outperform’ with a target price of Rs 475.

• It remains a compelling play on India’s power demand potential.

• Assured return on thermal assets was exposed to a steady medium-term regulatory regime.

• The pickup in power demand continues to bode well for sentiment.

• Upgrades to NTPC’s thermal pipeline cannot be fully ruled out.

• Clarity on the next long-term driver (nuclear) should emerge over the next six months.

JPMorgan On Key Sectors

Auto stocks

• An indirect impact of US tariffs on demand is a bigger worry.

• Reciprocal tariffs on India should not materially impact the attractiveness of auto component exports.

• Samvardhana Motherson International has tariff risks from Mexico and potentially the EU.

• Lower US demand is a bigger risk if tariffs become the new normal.

• Apollo Tyres has negligible exposure to the US.

• For Samvardhana Motherson, the US is 18-20% of revenue and they have a local presence.

• SAMIL has back-end supply chain linkages from Mexico and Canada and some of their OEM customers export the end products from the EU into the US.

• Bharat Forge and Sona BLW derive 40% of revenues from the US and are driven by exports from India.

Metal Stocks

• US reciprocal tariffs will have a negligible impact on earnings.

• In steel sector, US comprises only 2.5% of India’s export volumes.

• Aluminum exports to the US are higher at 9.7% of the export mix

• Hindalco’s exports to the US are negligible.

• NALCO is the largest exporter of Aluminum in India and may need to redirect exports to other regions.

• US HRC prices have risen sharply and are marginally positive for JSW Steel’s earnings.

• A sharp increase in US Midwest premium offsets headwinds from higher scrap prices and is a positive for Novelis’ profitability.

Pharma Stocks

• US tariff uncertainty looms; prefer hospitals and domestic-focused names.

• Indian generics are at risk although the US has high import dependence.

• API/CDMOs are relatively better placed.

• A 10% tariff pass-through may not face as much resistance as 25% or higher, when companies negotiate with channel partners in the US.

• See limited mitigating factors as not all companies have manufacturing presence in the US and relocation of plants is not easy and viable.

• China tariffs have hardly impacted exports out of China into the US.

• Zydus Life, Lupin and Dr. Reddy’s Labs have the highest revenue exposure to the US.

• Recommends positioning in domestic-focused names such as Mankind Pharma, Abbott India and hospital names such as Max Healthcare, Fortis, Apollo Hospitals, and Rainbow Children’s Medicare.

CLSA On REC

• Maintained ‘High Conviction Outperform’ with a target price of Rs 525.

• The tenure of the current CMD of REC ends; and an additional charge of REC is given to CMD of PFC.

• Historical records show that most top hires at REC have been external appointments who do two to five-year tenures.

• Outlook on the stock and expectations on financial performance remain intact.

• Any risk from a change in management should be more operational/short-term.

Morgan Stanley On DLF

• Maintained ‘equal-weight’ with a target price of Rs 910.

• Found the Chairman’s tone to be conservative on the development business.

• Resources and capex to drive significant growth in the rental business.

• No reason to chase growth in the development business suggesting a near-term caution.

• Despite high capex, earnings, dividend and cash flow will grow meaningfully over the next five years.

Brokerages On Gas Stocks

Morgan Stanley

• Proposed regulatory changes for long-haul natural gas transportation tariff calculation to increase India’s last gas penetration.

• Positive for transporters and upstream producers but normalising returns for city gas players and Petronet LNG.

• Gail India, Oil India and Reliance Industries will benefit most, followed by Gujarat State Petronet.

• Four proposed changes could be beneficial for gas pipeline transmission companies.

• Proposed changes are beneficial for consumers who are further away from gas sources.

• The cost of gas does rise for current end consumers as pipeline tariffs rise.

• The proposed changes are part of the regulator’s efforts to implement the ‘One Nation, One Grid, One Tariff’ framework, according to the brokerage.

CLSA

• Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board proposed several amendments in its gas transmission tariff determination regulations.

• These have been put to public consultation to be followed by an open house discussion in mid-April 2025.

• This could pave the way for these to be formalised possibly by the quarter-ending June 2025.

• Simply put, these could lower opex for Indraprastha Gas and Mahanagar Gas.

• These could pave the way for higher tariffs for both GSPL and Gail.

• At the margin, this could lead to a small hike in the costs of other gas users, including the industrial customers of Gujarat Gas.

Citi On ICICI Bank

• Maintained ‘buy’ with a target price of Rs 1,600.

• Levers to anchor fourth-quarter return on assets before FY26 headwinds take effect.

• Positive net interest margin bias in March quarter; 50 bps rate-cut to have 20-25 bps impact in FY26.

• Unsecured stress stabilising, chunky corporate recovery to aid credit cost.

• See gradual credit cost normalisation FY26 onwards.

• Loan growth to be sustained; unsecured lending to gather pace.

Citi On GAIL

• Maintained ‘buy’ with a target price of Rs 265.

• Filed for a tariff review for its integrated pipeline.

• The commencement of public consultation process for this tariff revision is a key catalyst.

• Recent regulatory development increases the likelihood of a tariff hike.

• Tie-up of US gas contracts significantly reduces margin uncertainty.

• GAIL should comfortably meet its guidance for the segment, after what was a disappointing third quarter.

Citi On Gujarat State Petronet 

• Maintained ‘buy’ with a target price of Rs 370.

• Beneficiary of potential upsides to its pipeline tariffs following the sharp tariff cut.

• The upside to tariffs driven by recent amendments in regulations proposed by the PNGRB and new capex.

• Expects more news flow around this going ahead.

• Expects the stock to gradually start pricing in tariff upsides.

Morgan Stanley On Manappuram Finance

• Maintained ‘equal-weight’ and hiked target price to Rs 220 from Rs 180.

• Lack of sufficient information to assess near-term earnings.

• Investors are likely to rely on trailing financials and focus on core gold loan business.

• Stock is likely to remain bound around the open offer price of Rs 236.

. Read more on Markets by NDTV Profit.Gas companies are in focus on Monday, following proposed regulatory changes for long-haul natural gas transportation tariff calculation.  Read MoreMarkets, Business, Notifications 

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