Bernstein and Goldman Sachs led the tone for the week with key notes on India’s earnings and portfolio strategy. While Bernstein flagged the futility of building a truly recession-proof portfolio, Goldman Sachs trimmed its Nifty target and earnings forecast, citing the impact of tariffs.

Following fourth-quarter business updates over the weekend, brokerages weighed in on Nykaa operator FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd., Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd. and Trent Ltd. among others.

For Nykaa, the consensus is that the beauty segment continues to deliver, though fashion remains a drag. Jubilant FoodWorks drew mixed reactions — a beat on sales, but questions on margins. Trent’s Q4 print, meanwhile, has triggered concerns over slower same-store sales and soft topline momentum.

NDTV Profit tracks what analysts are saying about stocks and sectors. Here are the key calls to watch out for on Monday.

Bernstein On India Strategy

  • Says building recession-proof portfolios is extremely difficult, as all equities carry direct or indirect risks.

  • Advises against aiming for a completely risk-free equity portfolio and suggests considering fixed income investments instead.

  • Says a balanced 12-stock portfolio can offer growth, defensiveness, and strong return potential during an economic recovery.

  • Added Power Grid and Mahindra and Mahindra to the model portfolio, citing macro recovery and growing domestic consumption.

  • Trimmed exposure to the information technology sector by removing Coforge.

  • Model portfolio includes Infosys Ltd., NTPC Ltd., Power Grid, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd., Larsen & Toubro Ltd., ICICI Bank Ltd., SBI Life Insurance Co., IndusInd Bank Ltd., Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd., Avenue Supermarts Ltd., Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd. and Bharti Airtel Ltd.

Goldman Sachs On India Strategy

  • Expects Indian earnings growth to be impacted by 2-3% over the next couple of years due to tariffs.

  • Lowered already below-consensus earnings growth forecasts for financial years 2025 and 2026 by 2%.

  • Now expects earnings per share growth of 11% in fiscal 2025 and 14% in financial year 2026.

  • Says earnings per share forecast for financial year 2026 is now cumulatively 4% below consensus.

  • Lowered 12-month target for Nifty 50 to 25,000 from 25,500.

Morgan Stanley On Nykaa

  • Retained an ‘overweight’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 191 apiece.

  • Fourth-quarter performance continued to show strong growth in the beauty segment, while the fashion business remained weak, the brokerage said.

  • Estimates consolidated revenue to grow in the low to mid-20% year-on-year, in line with estimate of 23%.

Citi On Nykaa

  • Retained a ‘sell’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 160 apiece.

  • Fourth-quarter update indicates intact growth momentum in the beauty and personal care segment, the brokerage said.

  • Expects advertising revenue to remain strong and margins to steadily improve.

Nomura On Nykaa

  • Retained a ‘neutral’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 190 apiece.

  • Fourth-quarter update showed beauty segment performance was in line with estimates, but fashion segment disappointed.

  • Notes that gross merchandise value and revenue growth in the beauty and personal care segment appears on track.

  • Fashion gross merchandise value growth likely exceeded estimates, the brokerage said.

Morgan Stanley On IndusInd Bank

  • Retained an ‘equal-weight’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 1,105 apiece.

  • Highlighted sharp deceleration in both deposit and loan growth during the quarter.

  • The bank lost significant market share, according to the brokerage.

  • Awaiting further clarity on margin trends and asset quality.

Citi On IndusInd Bank

  • Retained a ‘buy’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 890 apiece.

  • The rundown in the corporate loan book dragged overall advances growth.

  • Deposits were flat, the brokerage noted.

  • Estimates the bank to report a loss of Rs 700 crore in the quarter.

  • Expects it to utilise its contingency buffer to offset the impact on profits.

  • Forecasts credit cost to remain above 2%.

Morgan Stanley On Jubilant FoodWorks

  • Retained an ‘overweight’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 781 apiece.

  • Fourth-quarter results beat expectations, according to brokerage.

  • Strong same-store sales growth momentum from the third quarter continued into the fourth quarter.

Goldman Sachs On Jubilant FoodWorks

  • Retained a ‘neutral’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 700 apiece.

  • Same-store sales growth for Domino’s India exceeded expectations.

  • Notes that margins could remain muted despite strong same-store sales growth.

Morgan Stanley On Trent

  • Retained an ‘overweight’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 7,184 apiece.

  • Fourth-quarter net revenue rose 28% year-on-year, but fell short of the estimate of 35%.

  • Revenue performance weaker than expected.

Goldman Sachs On Trent

  • Retained a ‘buy’ rating on the stock and lowered target price to Rs 6,760 apiece from Rs 7,500, implying a potential downside from the previous close.

  • Fourth-quarter sales growth was weaker than expected, likely due to moderation in same-store sales.

  • Says more clarity is needed on what drove the slowdown in same-store performance.

  • Adds that inventory levels and margins will be key metrics to track in the fourth quarter.

Morgan Stanley On Tata Motors

  • Retained an ‘equal-weight’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 853 apiece.

  • Expects Jaguar Land Rover to pause exports to the United States due to auto tariffs.

  • Warns that if tariffs persist, Jaguar Land Rover could turn free cash flow negative in fiscal 2026.

  • If Jaguar Land Rover absorbs the full impact of tariffs, free cash flow could be negative 500 million British pounds.

  • Notes that a slowdown in India and weak free cash flow profile of Jaguar Land Rover could drag the stock closer to the bear case of Rs 416.

  • Fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 is likely to be strong for Jaguar Land Rover, but market focus remains on free trade agreements between the United Kingdom, European Union and United States.

Morgan Stanley On Godrej Consumer

  • Retained an ‘equal-weight’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 1,231 apiece.

  • Fourth-quarter performance was slightly ahead of estimates, led by strong growth in Godrej Africa, United States and Middle East.

  • Expects Ebitda margins to remain similar to third quarter levels at around 22.9%.

  • Notes that inflation remained high in palm oil and derivatives.

Citi On Delhivery

  • Retained a ‘buy’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 370 apiece.

  • Calls the Ecom Express acquisition a third-party logistics consolidation move in an evolving express logistics landscape.

  • Expects substantial benefits from economies of scale, and from consolidation of network and technology infrastructure.

  • Customer overlap is significant and wallet-share retention at key accounts will be critical.

  • Estimates the combined entity held 25% market share in E-commerce parcel deliveries in financial year 2024.

  • Industry consolidation in third-party logistics could support a sustainable pricing environment.

  • Adds that smooth integration and customer retention will be key to value creation.

Morgan Stanley On Delhivery

  • Retains an ‘equal-weight’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 320 apiece.

  • Says the Ecom Express acquisition marks an initial step towards consolidation.

  • Realising value will depend on revenue retention, cost optimisation, and market positioning for third-party logistics firms.

  • Considers the acquisition price reasonable even with high revenue attrition assumptions.

Goldman Sachs On Crompton Greaves Consumer

  • Retained a ‘buy’ rating on the stock and raised target price to Rs 480 apiece from earlier Rs 460, implying a potential upside from the previous close.

  • Crompton is well-positioned to weather uncertain growth scenarios, given its relatively low investor expectations and reasonable valuation.

  • Notes that newer products across categories and opportunities in solar pumps are likely to drive positive performance over the next few quarters.

  • Expects the recovery in growth to be broad-based.

HSBC On UPL

  • Retained a ‘buy’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 800 apiece.

  • Warns that retaliatory tariffs by China on agrochemical products could disrupt exports to the United States.

  • Brokerage is more concerned about second-order effects of the tariffs.

  • United States agrochemical exports are essential but not immune to disruption.

  • Expects United States agrochemical imports to remain relatively resilient, though a temporary slowdown is likely.

  • Shifts in trade flows could benefit some stocks.

JPMorgan On Auto

  • United States tariffs could impact supplier earnings by 5% to 30%.

  • Expects clarity in the coming weeks.

  • Anticipates Indian suppliers will quantify tariff-related risks in their March quarter results over the next four to six weeks.

  • SAMIL’s local presence in the United States should help mitigate risks.

  • Warns Bharat Forge’s auto and non-auto exports to the United States may face tariffs of 25% to 26%.

  • Notes that Sona BLW derives 40% of revenue from North America, almost entirely exported from India.

  • Indian suppliers have strong balance sheets.

  • Expects them to mitigate the impact through capacity expansion or acquisitions of smaller suppliers.

  • Maintained preference for domestic demand-driven names such as Eicher Motors, Mahindra and Mahindra, and InterGlobe Aviation.

Emkay On Fino Payments Bank

  • Initiates coverage with a ‘buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 300 apiece.

  • Fino is set to transition into a unique payment and lending-focused small finance bank.

  • The shift from transaction-led to ownership-led banking will support annuity income.

  • Digital payments will aid revenue growth and contribution margins.

  • Transformation into a small finance bank combining payments and lending could improve return on equity.

  • The stock deserves premium valuations due to its differentiated model.

Morgan Stanley On Reliance Industries

  • Retained an ‘overweight’ rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 1,606 apiece.

  • Expects fourth-quarter earnings to be overshadowed by trends in refining margins and energy segment cash flows.

  • Reliance has managed energy demand downcycles better than peers.

  • Notes that valuation multiples typically derated to 1.1 times price-to-book and enterprise value to invested capital during past demand concerns.

CLSA On Nifty – Laurence Balanco

  • Nifty’s rally has stalled after testing the February highs just below the 200-day moving average.

  • Notes that price action closed below the 50-day moving average as of Friday.

  • Identifies March 10 high around the 22,676 mark as the first support level, followed by early March lows near 21,964.

  • Warns of short-term weakness in the broader market due to global pressure on risk assets.

  • Adds that a breadth thrust buy signal, along with daily momentum indicators, suggests the downside could be limited.

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