State Bank of India, IndiGo operator InterGlobe Aviation Ltd., Federal Bank and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. are among top stocks on brokerages’ radar on Monday.

Further, commentary from Nomura, Morgan Stanley and Jefferies has come in on India GDP, India Strategy and NBFCs.

NDTV Profit tracks what analysts are saying about various stocks and sectors. Here are the analyst calls to keep an eye out for on Monday.

Morgan Stanley On Federal Bank

  • Maintained ‘underweight’ rating with a target price of Rs 170 apiece.

  • Low-hanging fruit has been picked and increasing macro challenges will weigh on quick turnaround.

  • Think execution will be gradual in the near term amid tough macro.

Nomura On India GDP

  • Sees Gross Domestic Product growth of 5.8% in the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2025, up from 5.4% in the second quarter, but below consensus.

  • Expects Reserve Bank of India to undertake rate cuts of 75 basis points this year.

  • Sees improved consumption and government spending, stable investments and a negative contribution from net exports.

Morgan Stanley On NBFC

  • Reserve Bank of India proposed regulated entities do not apply foreclosure or prepayment charges for floating rate loans to micro and small enterprises.

  • The central bank has invited comments up to March 21, 2025. This should give the industry the opportunity to provide feedback so that final guidelines are fair for all.

  • If implemented, this could hurt income from foreclosure charges and hence profit after tax.

  • Further, this could also increase propensity of borrowers to churn.

  • Think industry could take measures to mitigate impact by raising processing charges and loan spreads marginally for overall portfolio.

  • Floating rate loans against property, as proportion of loans, are highest for Aditya Birla Capital, PNB Housing Finance, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance, Aavas Financiers and Home First Finance Company.

Jefferies India Strategy

  • Nifty 50 down 13% from September 2024 high and broader markets down 20%, a short term bounce is likely.

  • We continue to believe that the equities ready for a near-term bounce.

  • We run valuation and growth visibility screens.

  • Four stocks screening well on both are Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd., Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd., Shriram Finance Ltd. and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd.

  • Predictable growth screens highlight Mahindra & Mahindra, TVS Motor Co., Indian Hotels Co., Amber Enterprises India and Housing Development Finance Corp.

  • Valuation screeners flag Samvardhana Motherson International, Container Corp. of India and V-Guard Industries among others.

Citi On IndiGo

  • Maintained ‘buy’ rating on operator InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. and raised target price to Rs 5,200 apiece from earlier Rs 5,100.

  • Open a 90-Day positive catalyst watch on IndiGo.

  • Sees pick-up in overall air traffic demand and IndiGo’s strong market share.

  • Expects significant improvement in passenger load factors in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, a seasonally weak quarter.

  • Part of this increase in overall demand could also be attributed to Maha Kumbh.

  • Higher demand could manifest itself in better yields in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.

Incred On SBI

  • Downgrade to ‘hold’ rating from ‘add’ and lowered target price to Rs 795 apiece from earlier Rs 1,100.

  • Brace for lower return ratios.

  • Expects return on assets to moderate; return on equity to decline to approximately 14% over fiscals 2026-2027.

  • Non-core income contributes materially to return on assets – difficult to forecast.

  • Core earnings growth to be impacted by recent repo rate cut.

  • Risk-reward ratio better at large private banks.

Jefferies On M&M

  • Maintained ‘buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 4,075 apiece.

  • Stock down 14% in last 10 days amid concerns over Tesla’s potential entry into India.

  • Expects limited impact on Mahindra & Mahindra from Tesla in near-term.

  • Sees gap in portfolio prices and electric vehicle policy offering lower duty only on limited volumes.

  • Find Mahindra & Mahindra’s 30,000 electric vehicle orders encouraging as it forms 30% of India’s total calendar year 2024 electric vehicle sales.

  • Mahindra & Mahindra’s 20 times core fiscal 2026 estimated price to earnings is attractive for 18% fiscals 2025 to 2027 estimated earnings per share compound annual growth rate.

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